A study on resilience from systemic risks in the socio-economic system
JSPS grant: no. 26282089
Duration：From April 2014 to March 2017
A current economic system of our society is characterized by complex networks and several types of algorithmic rules, and we face a threat of peculiar systemic risk to be derived from them. The prescription for risks is drawn by visualization of the location of the risk, but conventional studies are limited in a local level of (1) a monetary flow, (2) a people flow and (3) a logistic flow and have not elucidated the location of risks and chain reaction mechanism of risk spreads with both models and data analysis from a comprehensive point of view, yet. We attempt to implement characteristics of both people and logistic flows which were sometimes underestimated, and to develop a platform for data-driven model simulation to evaluate resilience of systems in a practical manner. Thus, our purpose is to clarify methodologies to protect and recover the whole socioeconomic system from the systemic risk, implementing particular resilience in each subsystem of the socioeconomic system in an adequate way, and to form the next-generation policy base.
We attempt to establish an evaluation platform of resilience with trans-disciplinary procedures among economics, econophysics, and information engineering from a multi-dimensional point of view of “money and goods” and “people and goods”. To do so, we employ methodologies simulation modelling on a complex network and analysis of actual data and pass through seven following stages:
- Fundamental study of risks exposed in real economy and finance
- Implementation of socioeconomic databases of goods and people
- Financial modeling and simulation
- Development of methods for risk sharing and risk relaxation
- Establishment of an evaluation platform for resilience of socioeconomic systems
- Analysis with models and simulation
- Global assessment of resilience for socioeconomic systems
In addition, we plan an international workshop in 2015 and cooperate with ETH Risk Center at each stage in necessary.
- Professor Yuuji Aruka (Chuo University) (Coordinator)
- Associate Professor Hiroshi Sato (National Defense Academy)
- Assistant Professor Masao Kubo (National Defense Academy)